Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Oregon -21 -110 over Colorado
Autzen Stadium – Eugene, OR
3:30 PM EST. It seems like every week Colorado is in our crosshairs but we are certain that the chalk in this tilt is working with depleted points, although it may not appear that way.
Betting with the heart is a known bankroll killer and that is what the market is doing this week, as it doubles down on Coach Prime and company. One can scour the internet and read all sorts of think-pieces about how the story of Coach Deion Sanders and Colorado is one that is unprecedented and one that is good for college football. The market simply cannot get enough of this stuff and making wagers based on sentimentality, and media influence and not reason. After all, how does the #18 team in country get three touchdowns from the #10 team in the country? To the naked eye, this makes Colorado look too easy and when we combine it with the emotional fuel that has been driving Prime-mania, this has all the makings of a sucker bet.
Last week, Colorado rallied from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to force overtime against arch-rival Colorado State: a team that was a 24-point underdog. Frankly, the Buffalos should have lost but a theatrical 98-yard drive by quarterback Shedeur Sanders followed by a series of Rams miscues allowed CU to escape with a 43-35 victory and once again there was bedlam in Boulder.
Everybody wants a piece of this Colorado pie. We’re actually surprised that ABC didn’t move this game to 8:00 PM to further cash in on one of the biggest Cinderella stories to come out of college football in a very long time. ABC, ESPN, CBS, you name it and Colorado is the top story. America wants to see Colorado take down Oregon and add another chapter to the storied run of Coach Prime and now the betting market is willing to play into the house edge to do so. That’s not a place we want to be.
From a distance this perhaps looks like Week One all over again. After all, while Colorado was unranked then, they were priced in a similar range against a then-ranked TCU team that was a national finalist in the 2022-23 season. The betting masses created a huge liability for bookmakers; said losses were amplified in their follow up against Nebraska when Colorado obliterated the number. Though the Buffs failed to produce a cashed ticket last week, they are without question still being played, as their market credibility remains elevated. Make no mistake this is by far the best team that Colorado has faced so far this season and they also have to do so in the most hostile environment that they will venture into, season-to-date. We promise you that last week’s win over Colorado State has emotionally charged and took at least a bit of a toll. Do you really think the oddsmakers were asleep at the wheel when they made Oregon a near three TD favorite? They also have all the data that shows that Colorado took a massive amount of wagers the first three weeks and it’s not about to stop now. This has all the makings of a blowout written all over it and a pivot that will bring the Buff-a-maniacs back to earth. America loves a hero and the media is trying to make Prime and the Buffs exactly that while we’ll be the dude sitting very quietly with his head down at the end of the craps table playing the “don’t” and cashing in.
Oregon -21 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)