Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 4:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.
CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA
San Jose St +6½ over Air Force
10:30 PM EST. This line opened at -4 but the inefficient market has hammered away at the road favorite to drive it up at the price you see here. That’s one of our cues to move in, as not only are we getting the Spartans at a great price but this game checks so many boxes for us.
First, we faded the Falcons last week, citing that they were overpriced with skewed numbers and we’re not coming off that position this week. One of the more difficult things to do as a sports bettor is to come right back on a team the week after they cost you money. Air Force jumped out to a commanding 22-0 first quarter lead over Utah State and when your wager is lost in the first 15 minutes of a ballgame, it leaves a sour taste in one’s mouth. Jumping ship on the fade is not the correct strategy. If they were overpriced last week and blew out the opposition, wouldn’t it make sense that they would be even more overpriced this week. Air Force is now 3-0 on the young season so another box it checks is that its stock is high, which means it’s time to sell. Air Force has also won eight in a row. Incidentally, Utah State outscored the Falcons 21-17 the rest of the way but all this market sees is a 39-21 final score and a team that has won eight straight. In the first two weeks, the Falcons soundly defeated Robert Morris 42-7 in Week 1, followed by a 13-3 victory over Conference USA Conference newcomer, Sam Houston State. The Falcons have beaten three cupcakes. Now, after three straight home games, Air Force will play its first road game of the year.
San Jose State has played four games and they are 1-3 on the year but they played #6 USC and they also played #18 Oregon State, who might actually be better than USC. SJSU had moments of brilliance in both contests and even put a scare into USC before the Trojans would pull away in the 4th quarter. They also had 232 yards passing against a great Oregon State defense that is littered with NFL hopefuls. The Spartans can move the chains against anyone. They are far more battle tested than Air Force, a team that has played absolutely nobody and rarely passes the ball. This is an Air Force team that is dead last in the country in passing yards per game and now they’re expected to cover a margin on the road? San Jose State has been tough when playing at home recently. In their last eight home games at CEFCU Stadium, the Spartans are 7-1, outscoring opponents, 261-133. The only loss over that stretch was that aforementioned 42-17 loss to Oregon State. Spartans outright is the call but we’ll gladly scoop up the points.
San Jose St +6 +103 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)