Auburn @ California
California +6 -110 over Auburn

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +6 -110 - BET365 +6 -110 Sportsinteraction +6 -110 888Sport +6 -110

California +6 over Auburn

California Memorial Stadium – Berkeley, CA

Streaming: ESPN

10:30 PM EST. We’ve coined the terms “pedigree” and “market perception” on a multitude of occasions in our handicapping approach. Both have great influence here. We could break down the X’s and O’s and attempt to decipher the match-up between the Auburn Tigers and California Golden Bears. We could tell you that Auburn is a dangerous team to back in this spot because they don’t have one quarterback who can do it all and they got away with that last week against a creampuff in their own backyard. This is an entirely different scenario but we will skip all that.

What resonates most with us is the market perception and pedigree of both teams in this contest. Auburn is a team with a pedigree, coming from a conference that is renowned for its football supremacy, boasting the services of a head coach who was hired to be the savior of War Eagle football. In his coaching debut, Hugh Freeze certainly left an impression with the market that he was a good choice to hand the reins to, as Auburn hung 59 points on visiting UMass and appeared more potent, physical, and dominant in all aspects of the game. Auburn was high-fiving and celebrating all game like they beat Alabaman for f**ks sake. 

To put things in perspective, Auburn did not break the 50-point threshold once in 2022. In 2023 in their first game under Freeze, War Eagle nearly eclipsed 60 points in and covered a 35-point line with ease against a Massachusetts team that in the week prior, staged an upset that generated a fair bit of attention in its own right. 

We can conclude this analysis by stating that California is a good play because we get to take advantage of the market’s reaction toward Auburn’s Week One showing, who is now asked to spot a margin on the road.  The Golden Bears have diminished market credibility and hail from a conference that will be extinct in 2024. California has not put together a winning season since 2019 and with such underwhelming results, Cal was pegged by several media outlets to lose outright at North Texas in their season opener last week. Despite a lack of faith in Cal to get the job done, the Bears demolished the Mean Green 58-21 but even with such a resounding performance, the market is reluctant to acknowledge such accolades. In a nutshell, Cal’s win last week was earned against a Group of Five constituent that it is “supposed” to beat but now Cal is supposed to lose to big brother from the SEC. 

Nevertheless, because the Golden Bears have been in bad form in recent memory, the market was quick to fade California in the road favorite role last week and they are doubling down against the Bears this week because Auburn looked so good against a nobody. Given the late kickoff time as well, there is also a bailout flavor to this fixture, something oddsmakers are acutely aware of when they posted Auburn as a less than a converted TD favorite. 

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Our Pick

California +6 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)