Georgia vs Ohio State
Georgia -4½ -106 over Ohio State

Posted at 2:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle -3½ -106 BET365 -4½ -110 SportsInteraction -4½ -110 888Sport -4½ -110

Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Georgia -4½ -106 over Ohio State

Streaming: ABC

Purely on paper, this might be the best first-round matchup the playoff has ever produced. Ohio State and Georgia rolled through 24 of their 25 opponents without much difficulty this season, with metrics placing both comfortably among the best in the nation every week. The Buckeyes did come up short at the end of the season, but they blew out nearly every other team on their schedule and delivered some fairly authoritative wins over solid Notre Dame and Penn State teams. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs opened with a near-perfect win over Oregon and firmly established themselves as the best team in the nation by stifling a dynamic Tennessee offense in Athens.

Ohio State doesn't find itself in the role of an underdog often; Vegas hasn't favored their opponent since the 2020 National Championship Game, and with good reason considering the Buckeyes' 22-3 record in that span. It's not just Georgia's dominance that makes this an uphill battle, however, with several other factors playing against Ohio State. Two of their three best offensive players—running back TreVeyon Henderson and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba—are out for the season, and the top-seeded Bulldogs had the luxury of selecting nearby Atlanta as the site for this game. It wouldn't be too crazy to suggest that even the current line is too small—Georgia did roll past a fairly similar Michigan team in the semifinals last season, after all.

Trying to run a lot against Georgia’s defense is usually a futile endeavor. Ohio State should probably come out throwing on every down. Buckeyes’ QB C.J. Stroud has completed 66.2% of his throws and was sacked only eight times. Then again, the passing-est team in college football (Mississippi State) completed only 29 of 52 throws against Georgia and lost by 26 points despite being +2 in Turnover Margin for the game. In the only game Georgia allowed more than 1 TD pass (3, in the SEC Championship Game vs. LSU), they won it by 20 points. Tennessee’s offense averaged 7.2 yards per play over the course of the season, hit 52 and 66 points in SEC action... but was held to 3.85 yards per snap and 14 points by the Georgia defense.

Thus, our position is that the Buckeyes could be doomed no matter how they decide to go about it. Georgia’s offensive line may not be as good as the Michigan o-line that grinded OSU’s defense, but it’s still one of the best in college football. “Stop the run and make QB Stetson Bennett beat you” hasn’t beaten Georgia much, as the ‘Dawgs are 27-1 straight up the last two seasons and if they win here, chances are great they’ll cover the price. The inefficient market has hammered this game down to the price you see here, which is more music to our ears.

Our Pick

Georgia -4½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)