Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Quick Lane Bowl – Ford Field, Detroit, MI
New Mexico State +160 ML over Bowling Green
2:30 PM EST. Indeed, Bowling Green may look like easy money here against a program with a nefarious reputation and with only one bowl win in 62 years but perhaps that is the only reason why the Falcons are the chalk (favorite) here.
Playing the role of the chalk for Bowling Green has not been its cup of tea, as Bowling Green has been the favorite on three occasions this season and covered in none of them. In fact, Bowling Green lost outright in one of those scenarios against a FCS cupcake in Eastern Kentucky. The other two sides that BGSU failed to cover against were Western Michigan (not bowl eligible) and Akron, arguably the worst side in FBS football. Bowling Green has only been favored away from home once in the last five years and as mentioned, the Falcons failed to cover at Akron on Oct. 1 this season. New Mexico State’s pedigree is so bad that they’re an underdog here but it’s not warranted.
New Mexico was 7-30 straight-up over the last four seasons before Jerry Kill came to Las Cruces after stepping away from coaching for health reasons in 2015 and then easing back into the game. It looked very much as if he should’ve stayed away from the action after New Mexico State started 0-4 with a couple of wipeout losses at Big-10 Row the Boat and Wisconsin, which were scheduled as paydays to help keep the Independent Aggies’ program afloat. At 7-34 and a history that had seen them go to just one bowl game since 1960, attaining bowl eligibility was far from the first thing on Kill’s mind. Then something clicked.
The reason for the surge was a solidification at QB behind jr. transfer Diego Pavia, who saw the lights turn on in the final five games of the season, when he produced an 11-1 touchdown to interception ratio and according to to Kill is 100% recovered from a hamstring injury suffered in the regular season finale against Valparaiso. Pavia and the Aggies left for Detroit on Wednesday. This isn’t bullshit for them. For Kill, Pavia and the rest of the team, this is all business. They missed Christmas with family in favor of being 100% ready and humming for this game. Pavia took his team to the JUCO Championship last year so he does have big game experience.
No matter where you go for your College Football previews or info, you will hear very little about Diego Pavia because the Aggies get very little coverage. You will hear or read about Bowling Green’s All-American defensive lineman Karl Brooks, who ranks in the top 10 nationally for solo sacks. Brooks will be playing in the bowl game, looking to cement his status as one of the most productive defensive linemen in this draft class. That’s nice it really is but don’t let the hype influence you. Even with Brooks, the Falcons defense couldn’t stop the marching band, yielding 421 yards per game and allowing 33 points per game against weak competition. So yeah, Brooks is good but one man does not make a defense.'
The favored Bee Gees rarely control anything against anyone, yet here they are, a jive talkin’ 3½-point choice over a team that is better than they are and that is 100% focused on the task at hand. We should also mention that the Bee Gees were a -2½-point fav earlier in the week but the efficient market has been buying into all the BS that the media is spewing out. Taking the 3½-points here is very, very tempting but we’re more inclined to take the tremendous value being offered on the Aggies to win outright. LFG!
New Mexico State +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)