Kent State @ Buffalo
Kent State +4½ -104 over Buffalo

Posted at 10:45 AM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +4½ -104  BET365 +4½ -110 SportsInteraction +4½ -110 888Sport +4½ -110

Kent State +4½ @ Buffalo

UB Stadium – Buffalo, NY

Streaming: ESPN+

1:00 PM EST. The Bulls have some curb appeal by way of the “must win angle” along with the “revenge factor” coupled with Kent State’s low market status because of its recent inability to cash tickets. The Golden Flashes are 1-7 Against the Spread (ATS) in their previous eight MAC games and 1-6 against the number in their preceding seven games overall.

Then of course, there is the efficient market, which hammered the Bulls when they were offered up as a small 2-point choice early in the week to the present number you see here (+4½ at time of writing and it still might go up). We have to question why Buffalo came out as such a small choice when the oddsmakers have all the data that would have supported making Buffalo a bigger favorite. It doesn’t make sense why the oddsmakers would open so low on the Bulls, knowing that Buffalo would get hammered at that price. That is what we refer to as “the books taking a position” and when they take a position, they usually win.

Kent State is 4-7 overall while the Bulls are 5-5. The media loves wins more than anything but said media doesn’t do their homework. They just write what everyone else is writing. What you will not read anywhere but here is that Kent State is a potential beast. They played Georgia and lost by just 17, 39-22. There are some SEC teams that the Dawgs beat by more. They also played then ranked #8 Oklahoma where Kent State trailed by four at the half. Finally, the Flashed also played Washington, which now sits as a top-15 outfit. That’s three losses right there. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s non-conference slate included games against Holy Cross, Coastal Carolina and Maryland (31-10 loss to Terps).

Buffalo would somehow manage to weave its way to a winning record despite giving up tons of yardage weekly. They have been the beneficiary of bounces going its way but they are not the better team here. Buffalo has plenty of issues in this game, namely slowing down the Flash running game ranked 22nd and spearheaded by RB Marquez Cooper (1186 yards, 11 TDs) and QB Collin Schlee (448 rushing yards, over 2000 yards passing and 17 total TD’s). This is a Bulls defense that can’t get off the field on its best day.

Kent State owns three losses in conference play by a converted touchdown or less. Combine that with the aforementioned three losses and the picture is a lot brighter but not to a media that only sees W’s and L’s. Kent State may not be going bowling this year but that doesn’t mean for one second that they don’t want to take the Bulls down with them nor are they incapable of capsizing UB’s postseason hopes. We also love that Buffalo’s game against Akron was canceled last week because of a snow storm. Do not be afraid to take Kent straight up, as they are the superior team that may actually win in blowout fashion.

Our Pick

Kent State +4½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)