Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Arkansas +105 over Ole Miss
Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Streaming: SEC Network
7:30 PM EST. We were behind Arkansas last week as a +153 favorite. Although we ripped up that ticket, we’re pretty sure a lot of you that were on board took the +5½ points and cashed, as Arkansas would score a late TD to get in through the back-door in a three-point loss. We never stood a chance with our money-line bet but it’s not going to deter us from coming back on the Razorbacks here, not because we’re thrilled with the Hogs but because this one fits an angle we’re always on the lookout for.
That angle is that a road favorite is the worst role for a team coming off a difficult loss. Quantifying this angle is difficult, as it depends on the input definition of "tough loss." But whether it's losing as a favorite, losing in the final seconds or losing a game after holding a double-digit fourth-quarter lead, no matter how the data is sliced, trust us when we say that road favorite is the worst role for such teams the following week. Why that role? Any team that's still a dog despite being at home is probably perceived as inferior, so there's not enough fear or concern to instill urgency in preparation -- plus, there's no home crowd to spark the need for immediate atonement.
Now trust us again when we say that no matter how you define it, Mississippi’s loss last week to Alabama counts. That game was tied 24-24 going to the fourth. With under three minutes left, Ole Miss was down 3. They had chances to take the lead or to tie it but ultimately lost by a mere 6 points to a team they desperately wanted to beat. Not only was it a devastating loss but it was the Rebels' second loss, which burst their bubble. It would probably take a panel of Hall of Fame motivators to get this team off the mat this week. The bubble-burst phenomenon has always been an extremely powerful concept, and these days the sport is delivered primarily in a way that defines that bubble. That leads most people -- players included -- to think that a second loss closes the door on any prize that's really worth having. Thus you have two powerful angles working against Ole Miss here and we’re on it.
Arkansas +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)