Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:45 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Western Michigan +10 over Central Michigan
Kelly/Shorts Stadium - Mount Pleasant, MI
8:00 PM EST. There are two MAC seasons with the move to mid-week prime time games being the new starting line. That comes in November, and so we are now two games into MACtion taking over our Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Since the turn of the calendar, the Chippewas of Central Michigan might be the most impressive team in the conference. As a 4½-point pooch, the Chips knocked off NIU at NIU, 35-22, and they won and covered against Buffalo last Wednesday night, 31-27. That’s two wins and covers in front of a national audience. That is not insignificant. CMU is also chasing that elusive postseason bid, which comes with six wins. The Chips have two kicks at the can. Next week at Eastern Michigan, and tonight v Western Michigan.
On the other side of that coin is WMU, who is 0-2 in November, losing to both Bowling Green and NIU (where the Broncs were 1-point favorite at home). Those defeats brought the Broncos season record to 3-7. With just this and one more game on the schedule, WMU will be shut out of the bowl season. The narrative surrounding the Broncos going into tonight’s game is that they have nothing to play for. Well, we know that misery loves company and the role of spoiler is one to be relished.
We’re not going to break down the X’s and O’s and we’re not going to predict an outright win for the Broncos, but we would not be shocked if they pull off the upset. The table is set for such a result. These points are totally inflated, and we must take advantage of that market inefficiency. To drive home that point, all we have to do is look at both WMU and CMU’s lines against NIU in the last two weeks. While all things are not equal, if we account for a 3-point home field advantage, both the Broncos and Chips were around a pick ‘em against the Huskies. If these teams were considered near equals, how can Western Michigan be taking back double-digits today?
Western Michigan +10 -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)