Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Wake Forest -4 over North Carolina
Truist Field, Winston-Salem, NC
7:30 PM EST. If we were in the business of predicting the outcomes of games, this one would be an easy choice. How can one not take the 8-1 Tar Heels, who sport the top ranked offense in the ACC? North Carolina needs just one win to secure the ACC’s Coastal Division, and it has its sights set on a big-time bowl game. So much for UNC just being a basketball school, eh?
The case for North Carolina is an easy one to make. The Heels have ripped off five wins in a row and are putting up video game numbers but a close look reveals they are not all that. Those five wins came against Va. Tech, The U, Duke, Pitt, and Virginia. Va Tech and Virginia are a combined 2-10 in the conference. Miami gets blown out weekly. Each victory was worse than the last but the market loves explosiveness so the Tar Heels appear legit when they are not.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is in a freefall after back-to-back losses to NC State and Louisville. Their résumé is not impressive. Five of Wake’s six wins have come against some real dregs. The Demon Deacons beat Liberty, 37-36, as a 17-point favorite, Vandy (who stinks), Army (who stinks more), and Boston College (the most pungent of the bunch). They also waffled the poor recruits at VMI to start the year 44-10. It’s not impressive. The Deacs' best win was over Florida State as a 6-point pooch. Even that one isn’t much of a signature victory with FSU being 6-3 and Wake catching them in the midst of a three game losing streak. When you add it all up, it doesn’t add up. We can’t be the only ones that see it.
To summarize, this line sticks out like a sore thumb. Not only is the Tar Heels’ stock soaring, but the Deacs are trending downward. The Deacons are not going to be playing in a major bowl either. The oddsmakers could have made this game a pick ‘em and not swayed a bet, yet, this line is better than a field goal. Why? Either this is a trap and the Tar Heels are the sucker bet of the week, or Vegas had one too many Cosmos before posting this price. We’re going with the former. No Cosmo needed.
Wake Forest -4 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)