Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:00 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Ohio @ Miami Ohio +115
Fred C. Yager Stadium – Miami, OH
Streaming: ESPN 2
7:30 PM ET. Handicapping college football is about understanding it is a game of impressions. Whether it be a Power Five showdown or a weeknight Group of Five match-up like this one, the axiom holds true. Heading into a weeknight primetime MACtion affair like this one, last week the market was riding the Buffalo Bulls who went into Athens, Ohio as a small 2½-point choice. Heading into the game, the Bulls had won and covered in six straight and thus the appeal on UB was through the ceiling. Ohio however would make it abundantly clear to Bulls backers that they were holding a ripped ticket toward the end of the second quarter when the Bobcats went up by a score of 24-3. Ohio would go on to win 45-24. As a result, we are now seeing the market zig-zag on the Bobcats here, who are now spotting low-hanging fruit, as a tiny favorite, as they venture cross-state to visit rival Miami Ohio.
A wise man once wrote that “history has a funny way of repeating itself” and we only had to wait a week here to see a similar situation develop with the Bobcats like what we saw with the Bulls, last Tuesday. You see it is now Ohio who comes into the affair on a five-game win and cover streak and who holds the accentuated market credibility. Kind of like Buffalo. This premise will be reinforced by the notion that Ohio has won six of the last eight meetings between these two parties and went 5-2-1 against the number over that span. However, we don’t pay attention to these trends, as they, if anything, make a case for the value to lie with the Redhawks.
The last three meetings between these two parties were settled by a field goal or less. And we highlight this because it basically makes this game a 50/50 proposition. The pricing behind this contest reflects that but from market perception, the Cats are viewed as a steal because the asking price is nominal. However, this figure is a representation of the oddsmakers’ lack of faith for Ohio to replicate what it achieved last week against Buffalo. And for what it’s worth, Ohio, in its five-game win and cover streak, was an underdog in four of those games with the exception of being a 9.5-point favorite hosting Akron, which doesn’t really count for much when we consider the state of the Zips football program these days.
Miami, Ohio, despite being 4-5 overall on the year, could easily be 6-2, as they lost three games in MAC play by a combined 14 points. Had the Redhawks posted such a record, they would be the favorite here. Had Ohio’s stock not shot through the ceiling after that resonating win last week, perhaps Miami Ohio would equally be posted as the chalk here as well. A confluence of luck-driven factors (a single bounce in several games that determined outcomes) has the wrong side favored here and we’re all over it.
Miami Ohio +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)