Massachusetts @ UConn
Massachusetts +15½ -109 over UConn

Posted at 3:45 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +15½ -109 BET365 +15½ -110 SportsInteraction +15½ -109 888Sport +15½ -110

Massachusetts +15½ over UConn

Rentschler Field at Pratt & Whitney Stadium – Storrs, CT

Streaming: CBS Sports Network (CBSSN)

7:00 PM EST. Just over a year ago, the Minuteman and Huskies were on the College Gameday selection section because the narrative behind this rivalry feud was that “someone had to win today”. Since then, the times have changed...well, somewhat….

Massachusetts has continued doing UMass-type things and bodes only one win this year over an FCS side in Stony Brook. The Huskies, meanwhile, have been making a bit of headway, as they staged an upset of Fresno State as a 22½-point pup to kick off October, just recently defeated their first Power Five opponent in eons, and now there is talk that the Huskies could be flirting with bowl eligibility should they get a win here and one more against either Liberty or Army. Overall, UConn is 7-2 Against the Spread (ATS) but perhaps of more significance is that they have won five in a row ATS. That brings us to our “too late to the party philosophy”. If you bet UConn today, you may cash your ticket but the time to jump on the Huskies was when they were a complete dreg and the market wanted nothing to do with them. The time not to get behind the Huskies is after they have covered five straight games.

We have also seen the Huskies go from a 7½-point pooch a week ago against Boston College to a 15½-point favorite in their follow-up. In other words, a 23-point swing from last week to this week. Moreover, there is a bit of a “sandwich game” phenomenon materializing here, albeit UConn and UMass are supposed to be a historic New England rivalry. You see, the Huskies might still be celebrating that win over Boston College. The victory gives the Huskies regional clout and it is a milestone given where this program has been in recent times. Alas, the first slice of bread. Ahead of this game, a ranked Liberty (presently #23 in the AP Poll) is coming to Storrs next week. Whether Liberty wins or loses on Saturday at Arkansas is actually irrelevant; at the time of this game, there is the notion of a potential ranked opponent coming to Connecticut for what would be one of the most meaningful games in recent history for the Huskies.

We reiterate that the Huskies will be in a position to gain bowl eligibility, should they notch a win against the boys from Amherst like “they are supposed to do”. That is the other slice of bread. UMass is the meat, never feared, perpetually overlooked, disrespected and written off. Thus what we have here is the letdown and the lookahead rolled into one and it remains a common cause of a C-game, because there are so many ways to go wrong. The first big game can be taxing, thrilling, deflating or any other thing that big games often are, the second one can be anticipated in several different distracting ways.

Finally, the over/under of 40 (at the time of writing) is not conducive to be laying this kind of lumber. The Huskies and the Minutemen are both not known for their offensive acumen. UConn sits 124th in Total Offense (288.9 YPG) and 121st in Points Per Game (17.6); UMass sits 130th in Total Offense (245.0 YPG) and 131st in Points Per Game (12.1). This posted total suggests that this fixture has all the makings of a rock fight and it wouldn’t be prudent to be laying inflated points with such a weak favorite. No matter how you slice it, whether it be overreaction, sandwich game, or lack of offensive prowess, the value lies here with the Minutemen

Our Pick

Massachusetts +15½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)