Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 4:15 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Central Michigan +6 over Northern Illinois
7:00 PM EST. Central Michigan takes on an entirely different role tonight. After being favored by -7½, -12 and -6 in their last three games respectively, the Chips now take on the role of significant underdog after they failed to cover in all three of those aforementioned games. The role of the underdog actually suits CMU much better. What we can ascertain from just following the week-to-week point-spreads in games that involve the Chips, is that they were getting too much respect when they were favored and now that they have failed to cash a ticket in over a month, the books have over-compensated. The last time CMU was a pooch was back in late September when they were a 9-point dog to Penn State in Happy Valley and beat the Nittany Lions outright with a resonating 33-14 victory, That victory caused CMU’s stock to soar. Subsequently, they were overpriced after that win v PSU but now they’re back to being undervalued.
Another reason the Chips are undervalued is because HC Jim McElwain pulled his starting QB last game to try and spark an offense that was stuck in neutral. It sorta worked, as Jase Bauer completed 18 of 25 throws for 185 yds and also racked up 109 yards on the ground on his 16 carries. We’ll see who the head coach goes with tonight but a two-headed QB system is not one the market generally embraces. The two rotated most of the day last week but frankly, we couldn’t care less. We know the Chips are undervalued here, as the price has been steadily rising all week.
As a 3½-point dog to EMU two games back, NIU crushed the number by winning outright, 39-10. Last week, the Huskies came back down to earth in a 24-17 loss to Ohio, which brings us up to speed on the host. Like most MAC teams, NIU is also better suited in the role of the underdog. The risks of playing favorites in this conference is too great and the proof is in the profits. NIU has been favored four times in MAC play this year and failed to cover each time. The underdog point-spread pedigree in this crazy conference is very strong and now you can throw in CMU’s stock being a fraction of what it was the week after beating Penn State and it creates this great opportunity. We’re calling the upset but will gladly scoop up the points.
Central Michigan +6 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)