Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:15 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Arkansas -3½ @ Auburn
Jordan-Hare Stadium - Auburn, AL
Streaming: SEC Network
12:00 PM EST. The Tigers of Auburn have dominated this SEC rivalry after ripping off six wins in a row. However, they come into this game with Auburn sporting one of their weakest offenses in years. Quarterback Robby Ashford is the lowest rated pivot in the SEC (110.9) and his team has failed to score more than 17 points in four of their last five games. That includes 10 v. Georgia, 17 v. LSU, 17. Mizzou, and 12 v. Penn State. Not surprisingly, the Tigers did not fare well, losing four of those five games. Those results actually flattered Auburn, as it should have gone 0-5, but a costly Mizzou fumble gave the Tigers that game.
Arkansas had high expectations this season. Like, top-10 high. As we head to November, the Razorbacks are just 4-3. It looks bad, but when you see who they have played the last month, it takes some of the sting out of the disappointing results. Arkansas dropped games to Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State. They were a pooch in every one of those games. Last week, the Hogs whacked BYU, 52-35, but that win looks weaker today than it did last week after the Cougars were downed at home by East Carolina last night. That perception works in our favor.
Around these parts, more often than not, the number will dictate our play. That is the case here, as the Razorbacks opened as a 3½-point favorite on the road. When the oddsmakers throw up the “hook” on a “key number” like 3, 7, 10, or 17, they are enticing the market to bet the underdog. There is a perception in the market that you are getting an “edge” when you take back a price that crosses those key numbers, but that could not be further from the truth. When you see that hook, you can trust that it’s what we call a favorite number. We trust that the Razorbacks are spotting far fewer points than they should be in this spot despite what the pundits on College Game Day might have us believe. We’ll swallow these points with pleasure.
Arkansas -3½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)