Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1015 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Cincinnati @ UCF -2
FBC Mortgage Stadium - Orlando, FL
3:30 PM EST. This wager is strictly an opportunity to take advantage of a huge zig-zag materializing before our very eyes. Two weeks ago, “Space U” donned special all-black uniforms and went onto post 70 points in a 53-point win against Temple before a national audience. Those that laid the 23½ points with Central Florida knew that they could put their feet up and coast well into the third quarter, as the Golden Knights blasted off 56 unanswered points from the last time Temple scored in the second quarter. In a primetime spot, UCF’s showing made many believe that the Golden Knights appeared to “be back” and the market dove head first in their follow-up at East Carolina on Saturday, as UCF was spotting a mere 5½-points. The price, though a notorious underdog conducive number, appeared to be a lock of the week despite all the glaring red flags.
However, to quote Sami Zayn, the Knights didn’t look too “Ucey” or better yet they looked nothing like the team that rolled the Owls the week before. In fact, UCF would get buried by the Pirates in a 34-13 trampling. Now, the Knights step into this tilt on the end of a zig-zag and we get to take advantage of the massive egg laid by UCF last week after dazzling the many with a spectacle the week prior. How many times have we seen such a course of events unfold? In one week, a team looks unbeatable and in the following outing they look like a shadow of their former selves. This creates the zig-zag scenario that can deplete one’s bankroll. However, the details provide all the insights into why one should not zag so quickly.
UCF remains unranked and yet they are spotting a pork-chop to the #19 Cincinnati Bearcats. It gets even better. UCF is favored against a ranked opponent that proudly wears the crown of the first Group of Five team to qualify for the College Football Playoff. While the Bearcats are not primed to do such a feat again, they can still make a New Year’s Six Bowl if they win out and continue their reign of dominance in the mid-major realms. The market is keen to buy into such narratives and given all that transpired in the past two weeks with UCF, the Bearcats seem like a safe harbor to render a wager. We argue that the figure presented indicates that oddsmakers are expecting UCF to respond to last week’s letdown in a big way. We’re betting the oddsmakers are correct.
UCF -2 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)