Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:15 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Stanford +16½ @ UCLA
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
10:30 PM EST. You would have to go back a long time to find the Cardinal taking back inflated points like this against the Bruins. In fact, we looked back at the last decade’s worth of battles between these two schools and the largest pile of points the Cardinal have been offered over that time was 7-points. If this inflated number doesn’t tell the story of the Bruins season, we don’t know what will.
UCLA was living the dream after a 6-0 start to the season, but they were hit with a dose of reality last week in Oregon, where it lost 45-30. That 15-point defeat actually flatters UCLA, as it was smothered by the Ducks, while also giving up a season worst 545 yards. Prior to that game in Eugene, the Bruins had wins over Pac-12 mates Colorado, Washington and Utah. It’s worth noting that UCLA was a pooch to both the Utes and the Huskies in their two games before playing the Ducks. They were an underdog last week, too.
The Bruins 6-1 record might look good on paper, but their non-conference schedule was embarrassing, as they clobbered Bowling Green, Alabama State and Southern Alabama. It’s impossible to know how good the Bruins really are because they’ve only played dregs and their Pac-12 brothers.
Stanford is down this season, but it is fighting. Two weeks ago, the Cardinal were an underdog in this range to Notre Dame in South Bend and won outright 16-14. They would follow up that victory with a win at Arizona State last Saturday, but the Cardinal failed to cover as a 3-point favorite. Stanford is just 2-5 against the spread this season, but that gives us an opportunity to take back a pile of inflated points here against a paper tiger (or Bruin, if you will).
This line is insulting and should be hung in every player’s locker on the Stanford side. Not only have they not sniffed this range in at least a decade, the Cardinal also catch the Bruins in a letdown spot after UCLA played those high profile games against two of the top teams in the conference. Asking the Bruins to spot a number like this just a week after getting whacked by the Ducks, is a lot. It’s a near 24-point swing from one week to the next. Sure the Ducks are better than the Cardinal this year, but are they that much better? We trust not.
Stanford +16½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)