Texas A&M -2 vs Arkansas
Texas A&M -2 -107 over Arkansas

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Posted at 6:15 AM EST and odds are subject to change.

Texas A&M -2 over Arkansas

AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX (Neutral Site)

Streaming: ESPN 

7:00 PM EST. It seems that the market won’t let good ol’ Jimbo off the ropes for the stunning upset the Aggies sustained two weeks ago against visiting Appalachian State. For the second straight week, the money has been pouring in against the Aggies, which signals to us that there is some value to be had here in the favorite. 


We covered the fact that the Aggies were upset outright as a 17-point favorite two weeks ago. At that time, A&M was ranked sixth in the country when the artist formerly known as the Appalachian State Mountaineers pulled it off.  Thanks to the overreaction to that result, the market jumped all over #13 Miami, who were priced as a 6½-point dog. A&M would go on to win and cover by a narrow margin in a 17-9 victory but the market still isn’t convinced about Texas A&M. After all, the Aggies’ offense seemed to stall out after it scored early in the third quarter. Miami would then shut out Texas A&M for the rest of the half and whittle down a 14-point lead. In fact, had it not shot itself in the foot on several occasions with costly penalties, took advantage of a Texas A&M fumble recovered by the Aggies, or simply had they had a bit more time, Miami could have easily come in under the number. As such, the market perception of the Aggies remains low and it is back for more this week against a team that is viewed as even better than the Hurricanes.


Enter the Arkansas Razorbacks. First and foremost, many recall the Hogs dominating the Aggies in Jerry World last year. This certainly carries weight in terms of recency bias. It has been inferred that this iteration of Arkansas football is better than the 2021 predecessor while the 2022 edition of Texas A&M has been characterized as nothing more than a bag of hot air. When this is coupled with the fact that the Hogs have covered the last four in this series dating back to 2018, the market is keen to buy into useless trends to reinforce its position. We however view this as reasons to, if anything, fade the Razorbacks. 


What resonates most is that the Arkansas Razorbacks who are the #10 team in the country, undefeated (with wins over a ranked Cincinnati and South Carolina), and own a memorable win in this series last year as a 4½-point pooch, are the pup here in 2022. We repeat that the Hogs are supposed to be better than they were when they emerged victorious in 2021. Yet, the linesmakers installed the Aggies as the favorite. Hmmm… 



Then there is also the feel-good component of Arkansas as a program. Since Sam “The Pitt Boss” Pittman took the reins of this team, they have been something like a “little engine that could”. The market loves the story of the Razorbacks rise from the ashes. The media is singing the praises too.. We understand that no one wants to lay points with the Aggies at this point and Jimbo Fisher is quite a controversial character; but the fact remains we are getting a team pegged as a dark horse for the College Football Playoff offered up at a discount. That’s our cue to skidoo on the Razorbacks and lay the deflated points with the Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University.

Our Pick

Texas A&M -2 -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)