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Posted at 6:15 AM EST and odds are subject to change.

Buffalo +205 @ Eastern Michigan

Rynearson Stadium – Ypsilanti, MI

Streaming: CBS Sports Network

12:00 PM EST. Last week, the Eagles of Eastern Michigan did something that no MAC team has ever done before: beat a Pac-12 outfit. This in itself renders EMU prone to an overreaction in its follow-up this week. The efficient market has followed suit, as the Eagles have been pounded from the moment the line opened. When we consider the recency bias working against the Buffalo Bulls, what we get is a quintessential buy-low, sell-high opportunity.

The Bulls are not the same Bulls that were a perennial contender for the MAC crown under the stewardship of Lance Leipold. In fact, the Bulls of recent are starting to bear all the resemblance of a low-tier mid-major school. Dating back to October 30th, 2021 when it lost to Bowling Green 56-44 at home as a 13½-point choice, the Bulls have yet to win a game since then. Six subsequent attempts and they have only covered once over that span when it came in under a lofty 24-point line in Week 1 when Maryland called off the dogs in a 31-10 rout. Not exactly an impressive performance portfolio for the Bulls, as of late. Buy low.

Then of course, there is Eastern Michigan, who achieved history last week and without doubt have been soaking in the merriment that comes with the accolade. While few may have watched EMU beat Arizona State, it was a monumental performance. The Eagles controlled the game from wire-to-wire and led by as much as 13 in the third quarter. As a 17½-point pup, the Eagles were never close to being in jeopardy of losing the game, let alone fostering a cover.

When we look at the overall picture, this game checks many of the boxes we’re always considering. It checks the recency bias box, it checks the underdog’s stock being very low box, it checks the favorite’s stock soaring box, it checks the underdog number we like (+6 or +6½), and it checks the letdown angle box.

We cannot overstate the letdown angle here. The smaller the program the bigger the letdown. For instance, should a team like SMU beat TCU for instance, indeed there could be a letdown the following week but a team like SMU is accustomed to playing quality programs and winning while a team like EMU is completely unaccustomed to it. We saw Marshall beat Notre Dame two weeks ago and then the following week, as a 16½-point choice over Bowling Green, Marshall would lose outright. The situation here calls for a play on Buffalo twin outright and for Buffalo to come in under the number, thus that’s how we’ll play it.

Officially:

Buffalo +6 to win 1 unit

Buffalo +205 (money line) for 1 unit.