Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 6:15 AM EST and odds are subject to change.
Texas @ Texas Tech +7
Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field – Lubbock, TX
3:30 PM EST. This play is like a gyro to feast on, as there are several ingredients and components all wrapped into one that make the Red Raiders delectable here. We’ll explain.
First there is the zig-zag scenario with the Raiders that we can take advantage of. Last week Texas Tech was taking back double-digits at #16 N.C. State. The efficient market jumped all over the points with Tech but in the end, the Red Raiders produced a ripped ticket. This business is a fickle one, which makes the Red Raiders a tough sell this week operating with less points at home against #19 Texas, who have made a very good impression so far this season. Texas has covered their last four outright and won three of their previous four overall.
The one loss is one that many still are talking about. We are referring to Texas’ narrow loss to visiting Alabama who were then ranked the best team in America. Texas lost by as close as a team can lose without winning, as the differential was a mere point and the Longhorns actually had plenty of opportunities to make things even worse for Alabama and win the game outright. We are not one for breaking down X’s and O’s, but the fact remains that Texas did not win the game because they failed to optimize scoring in the red zone despite multiple trips. Had they done so, Texas would perhaps be approaching the top-five right now in the polls. But enough about that. The point is that Texas’ market credibility is through the ceiling and that makes them a savory choice against a team like Texas Tech who soured the market’s belly, after last week’s result.
When we combine these two narratives with the fact that a ranked team is spotting less than a converted touchdown on the road, we absolutely take note of the number. After all, oddsmakers could have hung a -7 here on the ranked team but did not. It is also worth noting that this is ESPN’s featured game in the 3:30 PM time slot. Media influences the market to a great degree, yet oddsmakers still hung an appealing number on the favorite. ESPN analysts will be pimping the Longhorns all morning. Beware.
When we consider that we have inflated points with Texas for its recency bias, more inflated points for its ranking, even more inflated points because of their success against Tech overall, plus the market adding its two cents on top of it all, is Texas the bargain here or is Texas Tech? As practitioners of value we would conclude it is with Texas Tech. This Texas Tech team is not the same Red Raiders that the Longhorns have beat up on in recent encounters and the price implies that. The Red Raiders can not only cover here but can win this one outright.
Texas Tech +7 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)