Western Kentucky @ Indiana
Indiana -6½ -110 over Western Kentucky

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST and odds are subject to change.

Indiana -6½ over Western Kentucky

Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN

Streaming: Big-10 Network (BTN)

12:00 PM EST. The first thing to note here is that Indiana opened as a 7½-point choice before the efficient market got a hold of the price to drive it down below the key number of 7. When we see a favorite opening with a hook on key numbers like 3, 7 or 10, we almost always have a close look. The second thing to note is that Indiana was a -24½ point choice last week v Idaho and barely escaped with an 11-point win. In fact, the Hoosiers were down 10 at one point and hadn’t even scored in the first half. The Hoosiers were down 34½ points to the number going to the second half last week. In other words, they never had even a remote chance of covering. Indiana’s stock is not high coming into this week. An opening season, narrow victory over Illinois doesn’t hold much weight either.

Western Kentucky is 2-0 and just beat Hawaii 49-17. The Hilltoppers were a -16½-point choice last week and easily covered. Lost is WKU’s opening week victory against Austin Peay, where WKU was a 32½-point favorite and won by just 11, 38-27. Let’s get back to last week’s game against Hawaii, where the final score read 49-17. On paper it looks pretty but just like WKU’s forgotten scare against Peay, last week’s win over Hawaii wasn’t as pretty as it appears. The ‘Toppers had a pick-6, a 17-yard drive and a nine yard yard drive. They finished the game with just a +52-yard edge over a rebuilding Rainbow Warriors team that lost by nearly 100 points to Vandy in Week 1.

Last year, Indiana played at Western Kentucky and were a 9-point favorite. Last year, WKU featured QB Bailey Zappe but this year, they do not, as D2 transfer QB Austin Reed is the ‘Toppers QB and he’s vastly inferior to Zappe. Furthermore, it’s worth noting that Indiana outgained Western Kentucky last year by a margin of 306-195 and led 23-14 at one point and also led 33-24 with 2 minutes left before WKU backdoored a cover. Indiana is not only better this year but WKU is worse. We repeat that Indiana was a -9 point choice in WKU last year.

This is a big step up in competition for WKU. Furthermore, Indiana is not in a position to take anyone lightly after finishing last year with just two wins. Indiana’s struggles last week v Idaho actually works to our favor here because the market hated that result. Idaho nearly upset Washington State the week before so the Hoosiers rallying with a big second half is being completely overlooked. When you add up everything here, there is no question that we’re getting the host at a beautiful, discounted rate.

Our Pick

Indiana -6½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)

Texas A&M -2 -107 over Arkansas
Iowa State -2½ -110 over Baylor
Buffalo +195 over Eastern Michigan
Texas Tech +7 -110 over Texas
Louisiana Tech +13 -110 over South Alabama
Oregon State +185 over USC