Today's Free Picks for
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Auburn +115 over Penn State
Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
3:30 PM EST. Situationally speaking, when we see a ranked side laying a short tag on the road, we are forced to take a closer look at the hosts. When we consider the market presence of both parties, the Tigers certainly catch our attention. Penn State steps into this game ranked for the first time this season with a #23 next to their name. We cannot stress how being ranked for the first time in a season can come with a litany of snares, as it puts a target on a team’s back and also makes them susceptible to laying an inflated number compared to when they were unranked.
We saw Penn State in a similar position two weeks ago at Purdue. When a then unranked Penn State was priced in a similar range against the Boilermakers (-3.5 to be exact). The difference is that in that scenario, the Boilers were feasted upon by the market. Penn State, through a theatrical final drive, rallied and defeated Purdue 35-31 to purvey a seeing-eye cover. The market then zig-zagged onto Penn State last week against Ohio and they were rewarded when the Nittany Lions smoked the Bobcats 46-10 and covered a -27½-line with ease. Now, they are back for more here and eager to lay the short tag against a side whose market credibility has taken a real hit, as of late.
The one team that one did not hear much about in the SEC West in 2022 is Auburn. Alabama needs no introductions, as they will always be spoken about; Arkansas was one of 2021’s surprises and feel-good stories who are ranked now in the top-10; LSU hired Brian Kelly; Texas A&M put together the #1 recruiting class; Ole Miss is ranked and expected to be a 10-win outfit and Mississippi State has Mike Leach at the helm and with his candor and comedy comes endless possibilities. Auburn however, has been construed as the dumpster fire of the SEC West and pegged by many to perhaps be the weakest program in the division in 2022.
War Eagle closed their 2021 season in a way they would long like to forget. The Tigers, though ranked as high as the top-10 at one point, finished out their campaign with five straight losses. Extending back from the start of their tailspin to now, they have covered just once in seven games. After last week’s 24-16 struggle against visiting San Jose State (who was a 24-point dog), the hyperbole seemed to be legitimized and many called for Auburn to relinquish their “SEC Card ''. However, it is very well safe to assume that Auburn was looking ahead to this very game. Think about it, nothing can shut up all the talking heads quicker than a statement win against a repudiated side like the Nittany Lions. Auburn came close to taking the Lions down last year in Happy Valley, but sadly fell short; now they get them again, off the radar, on their own turf, and with nothing to lose and everything to gain. While the market has all but forgotten about the Tigers, this is their opportunity to remind the masses of what they are capable of. A team like Auburn is especially dangerous to fade in a spot such as this one and the linemakers have made note of this. The price reflects this vividly. Auburn outright, it is.
Auburn +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)