Marshall @ Bowling Green
Bowling Green +16½ -110 over Marshall

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST and odds are subject to change.

Bowling Green +16½ over Marshall

Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH

Streaming: NFL Network

5:00 PM EST. There are a couple moving parts to this play. First there is the Thundering Herd who pulled off one of Week 2’s biggest upsets when as a 20-point underdog, it defeated then #8 Notre Dame 26-21 in South Bend. Such a result immediately will stir up a frenzy and entice the market to dive in head first. When we add in that the Herd are 2-0 on the year both against the number and overall, the Thundering Herd have that much more appeal. However, jumping on board with the Herd here would be betting a team a week too late. The swing in the point spread further reflects that. You see, the Herd went from a 20-point dog to an 18-point favorite in one week, or underwent a 38-point swing.

On the flipside, we have the Bowling Green Falcons who come into this game 0-2 both straight up and against the number. which deflates their stock and renders them undervalued. The aforementioned variables in play with Marshall only accentuate this possibility. When we consider that Bowling Green lost to FCS Eastern Kentucky on its own soil here last week in a seven overtime heartbreaker, despite spotting 7½ points to the invader, it further enhances Marshall’s stock and lowers BGSU.

Marshall’s victory in South Bend was a historic one for the Thundering Herd program. College Football upsets like that do not happen often and the victor is exposed to things they have never been exposed to before. Media requests, emails, phone calls and high praises on campus. The week that follows an upset like that one is both exhilarating and celebratory. The players are heroes on campus and in their community. With all the boo-ha-ha that comes from that historic result, Marshall figures to come into this game flat against a much weaker opponent on paper, as they will be bathing in the revelry and prone to take their eye off the ball. Bowling Green meanwhile is free-rolling. When one considers the stub-the-toe potential of this spot for Marshall, it is ill advised to be laying inflated points. If the Falcons get rolled, so be it, but we play value and this situation offers plenty of it.

Our Pick

Bowling Green +16½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)

Texas A&M -2 -107 over Arkansas
Iowa State -2½ -110 over Baylor
Buffalo +195 over Eastern Michigan
Texas Tech +7 -110 over Texas
Louisiana Tech +13 -110 over South Alabama
Oregon State +185 over USC