Florida State @ Louisville
Louisville +120 over Florida State

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Posted at 3:45 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Louisville +120 over Florida State

Cardinal Stadium - Louisville, KY

Streaming: ESPN

7:30 PM EST. The Seminoles won against the highly hyped LSU Tigers in the feature game of Week 1, the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff Game, which was featured on the last Monday night before Monday Night Football took over. That game was 12 days ago now, which might as well be 12 weeks with our shortening attention spans. In case you forgot, or if you missed it, the Seminoles were so lucky to win that game against LSU, that it’s almost comical. The event that led to the Tiger comeback was equally hilarious. Needing only a field goal to seal the deal, down deep in LSU territory, Seminoles coach Mike Norvell made one of the stupidest calls we have ever seen. A pitch play. You know what happened next—FUMBLE! Tigers ball.

When your defense puts the finishing touches on what should be an easy closeout, you cannot make a call that sends them back out there. They’ve exhaled after a job well done. LSU would obviously march right down the field and score a touchdown. The extra point that would send it to overtime was blocked and FSU won. Anyone that cashed a ticket with the Seminoles in that game should have said three “Hail Jimmy’s” and lit the candles on their shrines of “The Greek”.

This will be the third “big” game the Cardinals have played this season. The first was a frog stomping (31-7) up at Syracuse. Louisville might as well not even suited up for that game because it had no chance to cover the 5½-point spread despite what the College Game Day panel would have had you believe.

Last Friday night, the Cardinals were in action at UCF. This time they were a 5½-point pooch and covered easily. Like many middle of the road Power Five schools, Louisville is one of those teams that is going to have appeal as an underdog, but one we want no part of as a favorite. Still, the defense had a tremendous second half against UCF and there is no question that Louisville is a tough out at home taking back points.

Meanwhile, despite being 2-0, Florida State's's win over LSU was more a case of the Tigers kicking themselves in the foot. FSU's other win was a nothing victory over a nothing school (Dusquene). The Seminoles were a 42-point favorite that day but did not cover. We now have to question why the Seminoles are favored here. Florida was in a lot of third downs last week and converted them. That's playing with fire. They are on the road again and that, too, is difficult to overcome. We also like the number is under 3, which gives the market a false sense of security because three wins it.

The market can be fickle in a results based business such as this. Both Florida State and Louisville played in high profile prime time games last time out. The results of those stand alone games carry much weight and were very different, as highlighted above. These stand alone games are often the ones most talked about by the pregame shows. Just turn on ESPN today. If you can't, believe us when we tell you, they really want you to watch this game on their network tonight. Prime time games get the most eyes, and therefore the most action. Cardinals outright is the call.



Our Pick

Louisville +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Texas A&M -2 -107 over Arkansas
Iowa State -2½ -110 over Baylor
Buffalo +195 over Eastern Michigan
Texas Tech +7 -110 over Texas
Louisiana Tech +13 -110 over South Alabama
Oregon State +185 over USC