Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 10:00 AM EST and odds are subject to change.
UAB +6 @ Liberty
Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
6:00 PM EST. This game features teams coming off very different Week 1's. First up is UAB, who frog-stomped Alabama A&M of SWAC fame. The 59-0 final looks pretty darn impressive on paper, but a closer look shows that this was a turnover-fueled victory that was little more than a glorified practice.
In light of former coach Bill Clark abruptly retiring for health reasons, a “warm-up” game might have been what interim coach Bryant Vincent needed to get his team ready for this “revenge” spot against Liberty, but we are here to suggest that the Blazers were done a disservice by punching down, especially when you consider what Liberty was up to in Week 1.
The Flames whacked the Blazers on UAB’s home field last season 36-12. Head coach Hugh Freeze knew his team would have the Blazers up second here in 2022, and he knew that he’d be losing starting quarterback Malik Willis to the NFL. However, that did not stop Freeze from making sure his team was challenged right out of the gate.
The Flames traveled to Southern Miss as a 3½-point favorite and challenged they were. The Golden Eagles fought hard and refused to go away, forcing the Flames into overtime. Four OTs later and the Flames would survive that nail-biter 29-27. It was a character win, one that when Freeze takes this team to a fourth straight bowl game, one could look back at that game and say “that’s why we're here boys”.
In the market, there are no moral victories. Plain and simple, the Flames did not cover the spread last week. Meanwhile, the Blazers posted 59 points and shut out another FBS school. It’s in those two very different results that we are able to extract some extreme value.
On no planet should the Flames be taking back this many points to an invader whose bark is bigger than its bite. Being asked to cover a touchdown at home is an insult and we have no doubt that Freeze has pounded that into his players' heads this week. Scoop up the inflated points and let's see what happens.
Liberty +6 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)