Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 9:15 AM EST and odds are subject to change.
Old Dominion @ East Carolina -13
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium - Greenville, NC
6:00 PM EST. As the Old Dominion faithful stormed the field after the Monarchs beat Virginia Tech we made this note to ourselves, “Fade OD next week”. Well, here we are. We don’t want to take anything away from the Monarch, but Hokies football isn’t quite what it used to be. A Power Five win is a Power Five win though and it’s resonating in the market.
For some perspective about what we are talking about, the Monarchs were just a 6-point pooch to the Hokies. Despite what the talking heads on TV would have you believe, that win was not some monumental, school legacy-defining upset. It also wasn’t an impressive win, as the Monarchs were out everything’d by the Hokies. OD gave up more yards, had fewer first downs, and lost the time of possession by nearly 11 minutes. Now, OD takes a big step up in competition, but the market doesn't see it that way. We do.
An unsuspecting market is going to look at a line like this in light of the Monarchs' win over VT and salivate. How can OD be +6 against the Hokies and now takling back sevemn more points to East Carolina?
The Pirates went toe-to-toe with hated rival N.C. State, but came up just short with a missed field goal that would have sent their home crown into a field-rushing frenzie. Instead, it was a pat on the helmet and an “Atta boy, we’ll get ‘em next time,” as the Pirates headed back into the locker room. A closer look at the box score shows the Pirates outgained N.C. State, matched them in first downs, and won the time of possession. Unlike OD, ECU’s kicker missed his mark. See how one play can change market perception in a big way.
Spotting a number such as this is not always in our wheelhouse, but when the oddsmakers are screaming at you, one has to listen. What would this line have been if the Pirates won that game? What if the Monarchs were downed by the Hokies? There is a damn good reason that the Pirates are being given this much respect by the books because they are a damn good football team. We drove that narrativve home last week and we're not coming off it this week. The vastly superior Pirates will destroy this imposter.
East Carolina -13 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)