Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 12:15 PM EST and odds are subject to change.
Florida State +170 over LSU
Caesars Superdome - New Orleans, LA
7:30 PM EST. Let us just get this right out of the way. LSU head coach Brian Kelly is a weasel, a rat, a no-good son-of-a-bitch, if you will. Dude left Touchdown Jesus, and for what? The Bayou? Have you seen the size of the mosquitoes in that swamp? When asked why a good Irish Catholic boy from Boston would leave South Bend for Baton Rouge, Kelly said, "I wanted to coach the very best players in the country who are afforded the best resources in the country and play in the best conference in the country. That's an incredible challenge to a football coach. I get that here. I get to work with the best athletic director and the best president, all in alignment to get to the end goal of winning the national championship." Let us translate that “coach speak” for you into three simple words. Straight. Cash. Homie.
LSU has enjoyed some relatively recent success by way of an undefeated season and a national championship with Bengals pivot Joe Burrow at the helm, but as of late, the Tigers have been dreadful. Well, at least SEC dreadful, having gone 11-12 since cashing in on that national title. That modest record and a 3-3 start in 2021 cost former coach Ed Orgeron his job. It hasn’t been as smooth a transition for Kelly as he may have liked. He was criticized for introducing a “fake” southern accent while addressing Tigers fans. Pretty funny for a dude from Massachusetts that spent the last decade in Indiana. We don’t recall too many, "Oh, Geez’s,” or “No reason to get snippy with me’s,” from Kelly while trying to fit in during his time in the midwest. Weird, eh?
If one damn Yankee coming down South wasn’t bad enough, Kelly got advice from that other damn Yankee that tried something similar over two decades ago—Nicholas Lou Saban Junior. What pray tell did Nick Saban say to Brian Kelly? “The people in Louisiana are great and passionate, and if you can use that to your advantage, it will be very, very helpful to you being successful." Translation—”If you can trick them hick Southerners to thinkin’ yer one of ‘em, they’ll love y’all!” Hot start. If you’ve followed Kelly's career for any amount of time, you know he’s a selfish, lying, cheating, student death-causing (look it up) megalomaniac, who would sell out his faith, family, and friends for a five-dollar bill. We could go on, but it’s a long season and this won’t be the last time Kelly’s Tigers are in our fade sights.
On the field, Kelly inherited a mess, as the Tigers had just 39 scholarship players when he took over. These guys saw Kelly coming a mile away and ran as fast as they could for the transfer portal—Soni Fonua (DL), Corey Kiner (RB), Joseph Evans (DL), Quinton “Pig” Cage (CB), Josh White (LB), Dwight McGlothern (CB), Devonta Lee (WR), Alex Adams (WR), Trey Palmer (WR), and Antoine Sampah (LB) all split. Sampah is the latest, a 4-star recruit that just entered the portal last week. Yes, Kelly replaced those players, but guess how many of his “boys” came over with him from Notre Dame? That would be one, punter, Jay Bramblett. The Tigers have no trustworthy option at quarterback, and they have no returning starters on the offensive line to protect that unproven commodity. Good luck, Brian.
What about Florida State? Well, we like it has a game under its belts already after disposing of FCS Duquesne, 47-7, in Week 0. It was a glorified practice, but it was one that ran flawlessly for coach Mike Norvell’s crew. Norvell has the Seminoles headed in the right direction. They’ve won six of their last nine games going back to last season.
Norvell returned 15 starters from last year’s team. His offense under returning QB Jordan Travis was criticized for “not showing much” against Duquesne, but that criticism is ridiculous. Why would he show Kelly and the Tigers anything good from the playbook? Oh, by the way, the ‘Noles averaged 8.4 yards per play and scored on eight out of 10 drives if you need ‘em.
FSU takes a big step up in competition here, but we trust that Norvell will have this team ready to tackle the flavor of the month, that being LSU. The Tigers are getting way too much hype for a team that has way too many holes to fill and is led by a charlatan. Say what you want about the South, but they don’t take too kindly to liars, cheaters, and fake prophets. It won’t be long until they see Kelly for what he is and feed him to the ‘gators. Seminoles outright is the call.
Florida State +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)