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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Baylor +12 over Duke

Lenovo Center – Raleigh, NC

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament – Second Round – East Region

2:40 PM ET. Let’s get this out of the way—Duke is Duke. The #1 team in the country, a blue-blood powerhouse, and a program that gets automatic respect in March. The Blue Devils did exactly what the world expected in their opener, annihilating Mount St. Mary’s by 44, covering a massive number with ease. That win was emphatic, the betting market took note, and now the narrative is shifting toward “Duke might just steamroll its way to the Final Four.” That’s exactly when we look to step in.

Baylor, meanwhile, quietly handled its business against Mississippi State, a team that’s been an enigma all season. The Bears’ win didn’t move the needle, and that’s precisely why this number is so enticing. Baylor is being treated like an afterthought, but the reality is far different.

This is a team with legitimate tournament chops. Sure, their 12-18-3 record against the spread doesn’t scream “trustworthy,” but that’s where perception and value diverge. Baylor ranks 29th in KenPom efficiency, putting them in the same tier as (or ahead of) teams like:

#5 seed Oregon

#7 seed Marquette

#8 seed UConn (yes, the two-time defending champs)

#11 seed North Carolina (who nearly knocked off Duke in the ACC Tournament)

Not bad for a #9 seed catching nearly a dozen points. This is what we call an inflated line—one where a team’s name and public perception are doing too much of the work.

Look, Duke is a monster. They might win this game, but this isn’t about predicting the outright winner—it’s about finding the value. Baylor is battle-tested, tournament-savvy, and well-coached. They won’t be intimidated by the moment or the logo on the other jersey. If Duke keeps rolling, so be it. But when you’re getting a tournament-proven team with elite efficiency metrics and a double-digit cushion, you take it.

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