Pinnacle  +115  BET365  +115 Sportsinteraction +115 888Sport +115

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Kentucky +115 ML over Illinois

Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, IL

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament – Second Round – Midwest Region

5:15 PM ET. Here we go again—our favorite tournament pattern in full effect: zig, zag, zig. Let’s take a quick rewind. In the First Four, the market was all over Texas, confidently fading Xavier. That didn’t work out. Texas flopped, Xavier advanced. Then the market flipped, backing Xavier as a short underdog against Illinois. That didn’t work out either—Illinois won by 13, covering easily and ripping up more tickets. Now, predictably, the market swings once again, chasing Illinois at a near pick’em against Kentucky.

We get it. Illinois looked sharp. And Kentucky? Their recent March track record has been… let’s call it uninspiring. The Wildcats have worn the blue-blood label without producing blue-blood results. But here’s the key: when was the last time you got Kentucky at a discount in a 50/50 game? Think about that.

This isn’t Kansas on Thursday—where the name brand was overvalued. This is Kentucky—one of the most talented rosters in the country—getting a fair number because of recent disappointments. That’s a rare opportunity.

Now, let’s talk matchup. Illinois can score, ranking 11th in the country at 83.9 PPG. But guess who’s fifth? Kentucky, averaging 85.0 PPG. These two teams play at a similar tempo, thrive on offense, and both rank outside the top 250 in scoring defense. That means this game is likely coming down to tempo, shot-making, and a few crucial late possessions.

In a pure coin-flip game, the right play is taking the better price. That’s Kentucky. The market has been swinging back and forth on Illinois, and we’re happy to step in against the grain—grabbing a blue-blood with elite offensive metrics at plus money in a game that’s up for grabs. Big Blue to the Sweet 16.

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