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Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Alabama State -1 over Texas Southern

Gateway Arena Center – Atlanta, GA

SWAC Tournament – Quarterfinals

2:00 PM ET. Texas Southern has owned Alabama State, winning seven straight. They even beat them by 11 in Huntsville back in January. Plus, the Tigers have been rolling, winning their last two SWAC games by double digits. So, why is Alabama State favored here? That’s not a mistake—it’s a message from the books.

The first meeting wasn’t as one-sided as it seemed. Alabama State led at halftime before completely falling apart. More importantly, the shooting numbers were an outlier. Alabama State shot a miserable 32% from the field and 27% from three—far below their norm. Meanwhile, Texas Southern shot 51% from the field and 47% from deep, both well above their averages. Those numbers are highly unlikely to repeat.

The real problem for Texas Southern? They can’t rebound—ranking 338th in the nation. That’s a fatal flaw in March when every possession matters. Alabama State’s rebounding edge will create extra opportunities and force Texas Southern into an uncomfortable spot. With shooting regression expected, a rebounding mismatch, and the books tipping their hand with this line, we’re rolling with Alabama State.

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