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Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Boise State -2 over San Diego State

Thomas and Mack Center – Las Vegas, NV

Mountain West Tournament – Quarterfinals

5:30 PM ET. The Aztecs have the pedigree, the brand, and the March Madness history that Boise State lacks. San Diego State played for a national title two years ago, they were ranked earlier this season, and they’re seen as the Mountain West’s premier program. Oh, and they’ve already beaten Boise State twice this year, including a 17-point smackdown a month ago. Yet… they’re underdogs here? Why?

If San Diego State was the obvious side, they’d be favored. Simple as that. But instead, the books have positioned Boise State as the slight favorite, signaling that they aren’t buying into the Aztecs’ name value. That’s a major red flag.

Vegas knows the public perception of San Diego State, and they’re baiting bettors into taking the Aztecs. But the books aren’t in the business of handing out free money. If San Diego State were truly the better team, they’d be laying points—not catching them. Boise State is catching San Diego State at the right time, and the books are showing their hand. We’ll trust the number and take Boise State to get it done.

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