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Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

USC -1 over Rutgers

Gainbridge Fieldhouse – Indianapolis, IN

B1G Tournament – First Round

8:30 PM ET. This line sticks out like a referee who suddenly decides to swallow his whistle in the final minute of a close game. USC is the 14-seed, Rutgers is the 11-seed, and yet USC is favored? A team that lost by 10 to Rutgers just two weeks ago and got absolutely obliterated by 27 against UCLA on Saturday? What in the name of March Madness is going on here?

Vegas is tipping its hand. This is a classic situational mismatch. Rutgers' defense is about as sturdy as a house of cards in a wind tunnel. They allow 76.9 points per game (311th nationally) while opponents shoot 46% against them (306th in D1). Even worse, they give up 28.2 made field goals per game (334th in the country). Against most teams, that's bad. Against USC, that's a full-blown disaster.

USC is 29th nationally in field goal percentage (48.2%) and averages 76.4 points per game. If the Trojans even half-heartedly exploit Rutgers' generosity on defense, they should win this game outright. Nobody wants to bet on a team that just got nuked by UCLA and has lost 8 of its last 10. But that’s exactly why USC is the play. Buying low on a team whose strengths align perfectly with their opponent’s weaknesses is how you stay ahead of the market. This is the best value on the board, full stop. Lock it in.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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