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Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Villanova +124 ML over St. John’s

The William B. Finneran Pavilion – Villanova, PA

6:00 PM ET. We have a top-10 team in St. John’s laying a short number to an unranked home underdog in Villanova. That alone raises eyebrows. The Red Storm have also won and covered three straight against Nova, including a 12-point win in Queens earlier this season when they covered as a 6.5-point favorite. Given these factors, one would expect a stronger number in favor of SJU, but that’s not the case. Instead, the Johnnies opened at a soft price, which tells us everything we need to know.

St. John’s is in the national spotlight after taking down #12 Marquette at Madison Square Garden and then following it up with a win at UConn—two of the toughest assignments in the Big East. In just a week, they’ve gone from a pleasant surprise to the team to beat in the conference. Oddsmakers are well aware of this, yet they’ve still priced the Red Storm cautiously against a 14-10 Villanova team that, on paper, looks like a shell of its former self. Or is it?

Records can be deceiving, and Villanova’s is a perfect example. The Wildcats rank 350th in KenPom’s Luck metric, a clear indication that their win-loss tally doesn’t tell the whole story. Six of their 10 losses have come by seven points or fewer, with three decided by a single possession. Those narrow losses weren’t to bottom-feeders either—they came against the likes of Maryland, Creighton (twice), Georgetown, Xavier, and St. Joseph’s. Xavier was ranked at one point, and both Maryland and Creighton are currently in the Top 25. In fact, Villanova lost two games to those ranked squads by a combined three points. Flip just one possession in each of those games, and the Wildcats could be ranked themselves. If that were the case, would St. John’s still be favored?

The Wildcats have already taken down #9 UConn and #14 Cincinnati this season, proving they can hang with elite competition. Had they caught a few more breaks, their résumé would look significantly stronger. St. John’s is no different—they are another highly ranked opponent stepping into Villanova’s house, where the Wildcats have won 11 of 14 games this season.

Beyond motivation, Villanova has the tools to win this matchup outright. The Wildcats rank 12th nationally in defensive rebounding, giving them a legitimate chance to outmuscle St. John’s on the boards. Defensively, they’re just as formidable as the Red Storm—SJU allows 65.0 PPG (29th overall), while Villanova concedes just 67.6 (63rd nationally). Combine that with the fact that all three of St. John’s losses have come away from home, and we have a highly motivated home underdog that is more than capable of getting the job done. Give us ‘Nova for the W.

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