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Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Valparaiso +159 ML over Belmont

Athletics-Recreation Center – Valparaiso, IN

8:00 PM ET. Recency bias is a powerful force in betting, and Belmont provides a textbook example. The Bruins have won seven of the last eight meetings against Valparaiso, covering in all but one. Add in the fact that Belmont already beat Valpo by seven earlier this season in Nashville, and this looks like a “safe” favorite. Oddsmakers, however, are sending a very different message—this is the shortest price Belmont has ever laid against Valparaiso in the last decade. That alone is enough to sound the alarm.

Despite their 17-8 record, Belmont is not a team to trust as a road favorite. A quick look at their recent history in this role paints an unflattering picture. The Bruins covered at Air Force and Richmond, but they were laying just 3.5 and 2 points, respectively, against teams with dismal records (Richmond is 8-17, Air Force has three wins all year). Even against Evansville (9-16), Belmont barely escaped with an 85-82 win despite laying 5.5 points. The market has been hesitant to trust them against weak competition, and for good reason.

Belmont’s philosophy is simple: score at will and hope for the best defensively. The Bruins rank 29th nationally in scoring (81.5 PPG) and rely heavily on the three-ball (top-15 in three-pointers made per game). When they’re hitting, they can look unstoppable. But when they’re not? Their defense rarely saves them. Belmont ranks 328th in points allowed (78.3 PPG) and 351st in opponent three-pointers made per game (9.4). If the shots don’t fall, they’re in trouble. That trouble has materialized often—when Belmont fails to score 80 points, they are just 2-7 this season. Valpo, on average, concedes 74.8 PPG, a mark that could spell disaster for the Bruins if their offense stumbles.

This is not a comfortable spot for Belmont, and oddsmakers know it. Despite their dominance over Valpo in recent years, they’ve been priced cautiously—a glaring indicator that the underdog is live. We’ll back the Crusaders outright.

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