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Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Hyde United +155 (To Win in Full Time) over Ilkeston Town

Ewen Fields – Hyde, Greater Manchester, England

Illinois St +113 ML over Drake

CEFCU Arena – Normal, IL

9:00 PM ET. Drake just keeps winning. The Bulldogs have now rattled off 10 straight victories since their last loss to Murray State on January 5th, sitting at an impressive 22-2 overall. Historically, they’ve also dominated this matchup, winning nine straight against Illinois State. But as always, win-loss records only tell part of the story.

Drake’s best friend this season? Overtime. The Bulldogs have played three overtime games—winning all three. In their nine-game win streak against Illinois State, two of those contests also went to OT, and Drake won both. Here’s the reality: overtime is a coin flip. There’s no skill advantage in a 50-50 scenario, yet fortune has consistently smiled on the Bulldogs. Flip those five OT games the other way, and suddenly, Drake isn’t some untouchable force—they’d be 19-5 overall, coming off a home loss as a 12.5-point favorite to Indiana State, and sitting at just 3-2 in their last five. If that were the case, what would the line look like here? We’d argue Illinois State might even be favored. Instead, the market is buying high on Drake, oblivious to how close they’ve been to falling back to earth.

These teams already met this season, with Drake escaping by just four points in a back-and-forth battle. Forget all the advanced metrics that make the Bulldogs look like world-beaters—Illinois State knows it can hang with them. That was in Des Moines. Now, the setting shifts to CEFCU Arena in Normal, IL, where the Redbirds are 10-3 at home. Two of those three losses were decided by a combined three points, one of which came in their season opener. Illinois State has already knocked off Belmont and Saint Louis in their own barn, and they’re foaming at the mouth for another shot at Drake—this time with their home crowd behind them.

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