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Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Loyola Marymount +199 ML over Santa Clara

Gersten Pavilion - Los Angeles, CA

10:00 PM ET. Santa Clara is the darling of the West Coast Conference this season, and that shine is reflected in this inflated number. The Broncos sit at 4-1 in league play, with impressive wins over TCU, Saint Louis, and Bradley. Meanwhile, Loyola Marymount has looked like cannon fodder, sitting at 1-4 in WCC play with their lone win coming against Oregon State—a result nobody cares about.

This one reeks of value on the home side. Loyola Marymount’s recent losses to Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s—a pair of top-tier WCC programs—are being used to discredit them entirely. Yes, they were blowouts, but losing to Gonzaga by 28 and to Saint Mary’s by 25 is hardly unique. Santa Clara’s body of work may look more consistent, but this is a classic letdown spot for a road favorite with a massive game against Gonzaga looming on Sunday.

The market is enamored with Santa Clara’s shiny résumé and recent form, but that doesn’t explain why this number is as short as it is. For all their struggles, LMU has a puncher’s chance here. The Lions play significantly better at home and could catch the Broncos napping in this trap game. We’ll play both the moneyline and the points in a spot where the market may have overcorrected. If Santa Clara wins, they’ll have to earn every inch.

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