Pinnacle  -3 -107  BET365 -3 -110  Sportsinteraction -3 -110  888Sport -3 -110

Posted at 9:15 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Jackson St -3 over Alabama State

Lee E. Williams Athletic and Assembly Center – Jackson, MS

4:30 PM ET. We fully understand the hesitation in backing a 1-13 team, especially one whose lone win came against a winless opponent, but teams like this can often present significant value in the right situation, and this is exactly that spot.

On paper, the 6-9 Alabama State Hornets catching 3.5 points against the woeful Jackson State Tigers seems like a gift. The Hornets have six times the wins of Jackson State, but that’s where the market stops digging—and where we start.

Alabama State’s road performances this year have been nothing short of disastrous. They’ve played seven road games, losing all seven by double digits. Whether it’s elite competition like Cincinnati or mediocre squads like Southern Miss, the Hornets haven’t just lost—they’ve been blown out. Furthermore, two of Alabama State’s six wins were narrow two-point victories against Arkansas-Pine Bluff (363rd in KenPom rankings) and Lamar. They also needed overtime to scrape past Tennessee-Martin (286th in KenPom). Simply put, Alabama State’s win-loss record is a mirage.

Jackson State’s record might look worse at first glance, but context matters. The Tigers have played the third-toughest schedule in the country and have been living out of their suitcases, with their first 14 games all on the road. Despite the grueling schedule, they’ve held their own against far superior competition, including close losses to Saint Louis, High Point, and even a 14-point margin against mighty Kentucky. The Tigers have been unlucky, ranking 308th in KenPom’s Luck ratings, but luck has a way of evening out. Alabama State’s record flatters them; Jackson State’s record does the opposite. That’s why the Tigers are favored here, and we’ll gladly spot the small number.

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