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Posted at 9:15 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Utah Tech -2 over Tarleton State

Burns Arena – St. George, UT

9:00 PM ST. The Tarleton State Texans are riding high on a four-game winning streak and have covered six straight games. On paper, they look like an easy play here against a 5-11 Utah Tech squad, but the oddsmakers are telling us a different story—and we’ll listen.

Tarleton State’s recent success has inflated their market value. Over the past few weeks, they’ve impressed with tight losses to UCF, UTEP, and Oklahoma State as big underdogs and notched outright wins as pups against Texas-Arlington and Southern Utah. That win over Southern Utah on Thursday might stand out as a marquee result, but a closer look reveals cracks.

In that game, Tarleton shot 55% from the field in the first half, a blistering number that’s nearly impossible to replicate. Despite this, they only led by 10 at halftime. Southern Utah shot just 38% in the first half and couldn’t hit a single three-pointer all game—yet still hung around. Tarleton’s win looks less like dominance and more like a perfect storm of favorable circumstances. The oddsmakers aren’t buying the Texans’ recent success, and neither are we.

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