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Posted at 10 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Florida -3½ over Tennessee

Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center – Gainesville, FL

7:00 PM ET. We don’t often wander into the spotlight when it comes to college hoops. There’s a smorgasbord of value in the lesser-known games on the slate, but every now and then, a marquee matchup like this one offers a golden opportunity.

Florida steps into this high-profile clash after a loss that sent their stock plummeting. Just a few days ago, the then-undefeated Gators visited Rupp Arena to face the Wildcats as 3.5-point underdogs. Florida fell short by six points, and the media didn’t hold back in calling them exposed. That result has left the Gators looking like a team incapable of competing with the NCAA’s elite. However, it’s not about what the media thinks; it’s about how the oddsmakers respond. And in this case, they’ve installed Florida as a 3-point favorite despite the narrative and despite Tennessee’s unblemished record.

That brings us to Tennessee, the undefeated and undisputed #1 team in the nation. The Volunteers have been obliterating opponents with ease. Just look at their recent results: a 24-point win over Arkansas, a 15-point victory against Norfolk State, an 18-point dismantling of Middle Tennessee, and a near-50-point annihilation of Western Carolina. Tennessee has also dominated this head-to-head series, winning eight of the last ten meetings. On paper, this looks like a no-brainer for the Vols.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Despite Tennessee’s sparkling resume and public support, the oddsmakers have made Florida the chalk. This is the same Florida team that just “embarrassed” itself on national television. The same Florida team that the public has no appetite for right now. The question is: why are the Gators favored?

The answer lies in the psychology of the number. Oddsmakers don’t hang lines like this unless they’re inviting action on the perceived stronger side—in this case, Tennessee. They know the public will jump at the chance to grab the #1 team in the country as an underdog, making the Gators the value play.

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