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Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

SE Louisana +120 over UT-Rio Grande Valley

University Center – Hammond, LA

7:00 PM ET. The Vaqueros enter this game riding high on a five-game winning streak and victories in seven of their last eight outings. On the surface, their 10-4 record looks impressive, especially compared to Southeastern Louisiana’s 6-8 mark, which includes a two-game losing streak. At first glance, UT Rio Grande Valley seems like the obvious choice, and the market certainly agrees, as they’ve been anointed as the play of the day. However, as always, the devil is in the details.

The Vaqueros have garnered attention for their early-season performances, including a three-point loss at Wisconsin and covers as 24- and 29-point underdogs at Nebraska and Creighton, respectively. These outings make Rio Grande Valley appear battle-tested and worthy of their lofty reputation. But appearances can be deceiving, and when we dig deeper, the shine starts to fade.

For one, the Vaqueros’ road resume is thin. They’ve played just four games away from Edinburg, winning only once. Contrast that with Southeastern Louisiana, which has played nine road games and lost three of them by four points or less. With a little luck, the Lions could easily be over .500 and carrying a more respectable record. Home-court advantage is significant in college basketball, and it’s amplified even more in smaller conferences like the Southland. The Lions’ return to Hammond for just their fourth home game of the season is a pivotal factor that the market seems to have overlooked.

Let’s also scrutinize UT Rio Grande Valley’s schedule. While they’ve padded their win total with eight home games, four of those were against Division II opponents. They also faced Le Moyne, ranked 346th in KenPom’s ratings. Against credible opposition—such as Lamar, Stephen F. Austin, and Southern Utah—the Vaqueros struggled. They eked out two wins by a combined five points and were blown out by Lamar. They were favorites in three of these matchups and barely scraped by as a 1.5-point favorite in their three-point win over Southern Utah. This is not the profile of a reliable road favorite.

On the flip side, Southeastern Louisiana has made the most of their limited opportunities at home. They blew out Western Carolina and a Division II team by 38 and 34 points, respectively. Even in a nine-point loss to Texas A&M-Commerce (a respectable 9-6 team), the Lions led by four at halftime. This team clearly plays with more energy and cohesion on its home floor, and tonight’s game against a suspect 10-4 Vaqueros squad is a prime opportunity to show it.

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