Pinnacle -3½ -106  BET365 -3½ -110 Sportsinteraction -3½ -110  888Sport  -3½ -110

Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Lamar -3½ over Incarnate Word

Motagne Center - Beaumont, TX

8:00 PM ET. This play is more of an opportunity to back the Cardinals who we trust is in a buy-low position after Saturday’s result. The Cards opened as a 12-point choice playing host to Houston Baptist or Houston Christian, depending on which name you prefer, and were heavily faded when the market was gobbling up the points with the Huskies. At the time of tip-off, Lamar was spotting 10 to HCU but were never in position to cover, as they trailed the Huskies by seven at half-time and required a buzzer-beater to escape Houston Christian by a score of 63-61. The Incarnate Word, also known as the Cardinals ironically enough, come into this game red-hot winning five of their last six overall. Their sole defeat was at Duke on December 10th, which the market will consider an honor for the Cardinals to lose at the Blue Devils given their prominence in the college basketball hierarchy. Overall, IW is on a four-game winning streak, capped off with an upset win at Stephen F. Austin which will raise eyebrows since the Lumberjacks have some curb appeal as a power in the Southland Conference. Building that on top of the fact that the Cards have covered in four of their last five, they seem like a safer bet in this spot with the points.

However, as we have said before, not all schedules are created equal and win-loss records are deceptive. Indeed, Incarnate Word has the more affable 9-5 record but they also played the 354th ranked strength of schedule which upon further review may seem a bit generous. Yes, IW beat Stephen F. Austin but their four-game win streak is built upon sand, as their other three victories were home wins against Division II squads. Expanding further, the Cardinals have four wins overall against D2 opposition and their other four victories were obtained against teams ranked 322nd or lower in KenPom’s ratings. If there was an epitome of a bottom feeder, the Cardinals would find their insignia next to the definition in Webster’s Dictionary. And now we get to capitalize.

Lamar by contrast owns wins over nine-win Texas A&M Commerce and ten-win UT-Rio Grande Valley while losing three more defeats by a combined 15 points. In a nutshell, their 8-6 is more qualitative and could easily be 11-3. The Cardinals were also not shy to square up with in-state powers in Texas A&M and Texas Tech, which are two ranked constituents compared to Incarnate Word’s one visit to ranked Duke. Bottom line, Lamar has played a tougher schedule and attained more convincing wins compared to their counterpart and we are getting them at a reduced price due to one set of results. Lamar can win this going away and we’re happy to back them here.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------