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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

UNC Greensboro -1 over Furman

First Horizon Coliseum – Greensboro, NC

4:00 PM ET. Enter Furman, a team sitting pretty at 13-1 with a résumé that includes a lone loss to then-#1 Kansas. But peel back the layers, and you’ll find that the Paladins' record is built on a foundation of sand. According to KenPom, Furman ranks as the “luckiest” team in the country—a dubious honor that underscores how much fortune has factored into their success. They’ve scraped by with five wins decided by six points or fewer, four of which came down to a single possession. These are coin-flip outcomes that Furman has consistently won, skewing the perception of their true ability.

The market, predictably, buys what it sees—results. Furman’s sparkling 9-2 ATS record makes it easy to justify backing them, especially as a tempting underdog against an 8-6 Greensboro squad. However, oddsmakers aren’t fooled, and their reluctance to inflate Furman’s price speaks volumes. Greensboro laying just a point here says more about Furman’s inflated win-loss record than anything else.

Greensboro, meanwhile, sits at the opposite end of KenPom’s “luck” spectrum, ranked 283rd. The Spartans have dropped three games by five points or fewer. With a few breaks, they could be 11-3 instead of 8-6, and we’d be staring at a much different line here. Crucially, the Spartans remain undefeated at home and possess the tools to dictate the tempo against Furman. While Furman’s defense is touted for its ability to defend the three (2nd in the country), Greensboro quietly excels in similar metrics, ranking 10th in three-point defense, 23rd in points allowed per game (63.4), and 25th in defensive rebounding. Furman’s luck has to run out eventually.

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