Pinnacle -2 -112 BET365 -2 -110 Sportsinteraction -2 -110  888Sport -2 -110

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Iona -2 over Marist

Hynes Athletics Center – New Rochelle, NY

7:00 PM ET. We often remind ourselves that win-loss records rarely tell the full story, and the Marist Red Foxes are a perfect example of this principle. Marist arrives with an impressive 9-2 record, while Iona sits at a dismal 4-9. Yet, despite the apparent disparity, the Gaels are favored here—and for good reason.

A closer examination reveals that Marist’s 9-2 record is largely built on smoke and mirrors. Their schedule ranks as one of the weakest in all of Division I basketball (362nd out of 364 teams). Against this cupcake slate, the Red Foxes also boast a Luck rating of 20th nationally, meaning they’ve benefited from nearly every break going their way. The oddsmakers are keenly aware of this hollow record, even if the market isn’t.

Marist is currently riding a five-game winning streak and has lost just once in its last 10 outings. However, their recent form is deceptive. When priced as a modest underdog at Lehigh on November 30th, Marist fell 74-69 to a Mountain Hawks team ranked 262nd in NET rankings. At the time, Lehigh had yet to win a game against a Division I opponent. That loss illustrates Marist’s susceptibility to playing down to their competition—a pattern likely to repeat here.

Conversely, Iona’s record is misleading in the opposite direction. The Gaels have faced a significantly tougher schedule and have shown flashes of competitiveness against far superior opposition. The line is a reflection of the underlying metrics, not the superficial records. We’ll gladly spot the bucket with the better-prepared Gaels.

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