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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit Mercy +199 ML over Robert Morris

Calihan Hall – Detroit, MI

7:00 PM ET. In essence, this is the second leg of a "sticking with it" play, as we continue our attack on Robert Morris. We faded the Colonials against Northern Kentucky on Sunday when RMU was a public dog that jumped the fence and closed as a one-point choice at tip-off. The Colonials, despite their best efforts to not put away the Norse, managed to do so finally in a triple-overtime thriller that saw them cover in a four-point win. Robert Morris’ victory marked their fourth straight cover and third straight win overall, elevating their stock even higher in the market.

The Titans come into this tilt on a three-game win streak against the spread but achieved it in a very different manner. Detroit Mercy has dropped five games in a row outright, losing by double digits in their previous four outings. Their recent ATS success stems from being grossly undervalued, with oddsmakers inflating their lines to attract action. After all, the Titans are a paltry 5-10 on the year, with their best win being a November 20th triumph at Ball State—hardly a ringing endorsement.

Despite these narratives, the Titans are taking back a relatively short number here, while Robert Morris is now being asked to play the role of road chalk. This is uncharted territory for RMU, as it marks the first time this season they’ve been cast as a road favorite. Essentially, the Colonials are stepping into enemy territory with a target on their back, and we’re not sold they’re equipped to handle it. After all, RMU’s schedule is one of the softest in college basketball (ranked 355th by KenPom), and their Luck rating of 41st suggests they’ve had their fair share of fortunate outcomes. While the Colonials boast an impressive 8-1 home record, their road woes (1-3) paint a different picture.

When we put all these elements together, Robert Morris profiles as an overvalued team in a vulnerable position. Recency bias, combined with Detroit Mercy’s five-game losing streak and three-game skid against RMU, masks the peril of backing the Colonials here. We’ll have no part of it—Detroit Mercy outright.

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