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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Northern Kentucky -2 over Purdue Fort Wayne

Truist Arena – Highland Heights, KY

7:00 PM ET. The idea of backing Northern Kentucky again after they burned us last time might not sit well with the man on the street, but as we often say, betting isn’t about comfort—it’s about value. This is a prime “stick with it” spot, and we’re happy to get right back on the Norse.

Northern Kentucky’s last outing against Robert Morris was a rollercoaster. The Norse opened as one-point favorites, closed as one-point dogs, and battled through three overtimes before eventually falling short. That loss dropped them to 3-9 against the spread (ATS) on the year and likely scared off any potential backers for this matchup. But that’s precisely where the value lies.

Let’s dig into the setup. Purdue Fort Wayne (IPFW) comes in with more impressive raw numbers—an 82.7 points-per-game offense, top-50 three-point shooting, and the fewest turnovers per game in the nation. Add to that their KenPom ranking of 134th compared to NKU’s 242nd opponent last game, and the Mastodons seem like an obvious play. The market loves shiny stats like these, but context matters. IPFW has compiled these numbers against the 317th-ranked strength of schedule, meaning their gaudy metrics are inflated by beating up on lesser competition.

Despite their offensive prowess, IPFW has glaring flaws. They rank 343rd in opponent field goal percentage (47.3%) and are among the worst rebounding teams in the nation. They also sport a pedestrian 3-4 road record. This is not a team built to dominate in a tough environment like Truist Arena, especially against a Northern Kentucky squad that’s better than its record suggests.

The line here speaks volumes. NKU is spotting more points to IPFW than they were to Robert Morris, a team ranked nearly 90 spots lower in KenPom. That’s a significant vote of confidence from the oddsmakers, and it tells us they expect a bounce-back from the Norse. Northern Kentucky’s stock is low after their ATS struggles, but this is a chance to buy them at a discount against an overvalued opponent.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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