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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cal Baptist +155 ML over UC Irvine

Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center – Riverside, CA

10:00 PM ET. It’s easy to look at this matchup and find reasons to side with UC Irvine. After all, the Anteaters have pedigree. They’ve danced in March before, and their 10-2 record looks polished compared to California Baptist’s middling 6-6 mark. Add to that Irvine’s 7-4 ATS record versus the Lancers’ dismal 4-9 clip, and you’ve got a team the market can comfortably back.

The Anteaters are coming off a nine-day layoff following a blowout loss to Duquesne, a defeat the market will conveniently write off as a scheduling issue. Sure, UCI had to crisscross the country, playing three games in a week across multiple time zones, and now they’ve had time to “rest and reset.” The market loves that narrative—it’s a built-in excuse to pile on the perceived stronger team, but what has Irvine really proven? They’ve beaten up on inferior competition while their résumé against quality opponents is paper-thin. This is a team that thrives on reputation more than substance.

Meanwhile, California Baptist comes into this one with seemingly nothing to offer. They nearly gagged against winless Jackson State on Saturday, needing to stave off a late rally to secure a six-point win as a 13½-point favorite. That’s a red flag for most bettors, but for us, it’s a signal. That lackluster performance against a “cupcake” opponent sets the table for an overreaction, giving us more value on the Lancers in a favorable spot.

The Lancers are at home, which cannot be overlooked. While UCI is hailed as a Big West contender, California Baptist isn’t some pushover. They’ve shown flashes of competency, particularly on their home court, where their metrics are far better than their record suggests. More importantly, this is a classic case of perception versus reality. The market sees UC Irvine as the safe play, the reliable team with a better record and a better ATS mark. The low-hanging fruit is tempting, but it’s often rotten at its core. Lancers outright.

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