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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Northern Kentucky -1 over Robert Morris

UPMC Events Center – Moon Township, PA

2:00 PM ET. If you’ve been following against-the-spread (ATS) trends, this one might seem like a no-brainer. Northern Kentucky has been a disaster at the window with a 3-8 ATS record, while Robert Morris has been an ATS darling, cashing in at a sparkling 8-3 clip. Add in Robert Morris’s strong 7-1 home record against Northern Kentucky’s woeful 1-4 road mark, and the public is eager to back the Colonials as a home underdog. But that’s where we come in.

Let’s start with the line itself. Despite all those shiny stats favoring Robert Morris, Northern Kentucky is the favorite in this spot. A team that has burned bettors all year laying a point on the road against a profitable and dominant home team? That should immediately raise an eyebrow. The Norse aren’t favored here by accident—this line tells a story that the market might be missing.

First, there’s the head-to-head history. Northern Kentucky has dominated this series, going 7-1 all-time against Robert Morris. Normally, we’d use a trend like that as a reason to fade, especially if the market is overly reliant on it. But here’s the thing: the market isn’t even looking at it. Instead, it’s laser-focused on NKU’s poor ATS record and Robert Morris’s home dominance, ignoring the bigger picture.

That picture reveals a significant quality gap. Robert Morris has padded its 8-4 record against the 352nd-ranked strength of schedule, racking up wins against glorified scrimmage squads. Five of their victories came against teams ranked 300th or worse in KenPom. They’ve also been extraordinarily lucky, ranking 72nd in KenPom’s "Luck" category. In short, they’ve played a soft schedule, caught some breaks, and looked good doing it—but looks can be deceiving.

Northern Kentucky, on the other hand, has been battle-tested. They’ve faced legitimate programs like Purdue, Cincinnati, and Florida State. Those games didn’t do wonders for their record, but they did prepare the Norse for matchups like this. While Robert Morris steps up in class here, NKU steps down, and the line reflects that.

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