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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Evansville +170 over Missouri State

Ford Center – Evansville, IN

4:00 PM ET. When we first laid eyes on this number, we knew we had to dig deeper. On paper, Missouri State’s 7-5 overall record and 7-3 mark against the spread make them look like the clear choice over Evansville, who sits at a dismal 3-9 straight up and 3-8 against the number. Add to that the fact that Missouri State has owned this series, winning nine of the last ten meetings and riding a six-game winning streak against the Purple Aces, and you’d think this line would be a lot higher than it is. But therein lies the rub.

The oddsmakers could have made Missouri State a much bigger favorite here, and the public would have likely gobbled it up. Instead, they set a number that looks soft, inviting action on the Bears, which raises a red flag for us. Evansville is coming off a blowout 27-point loss at Ball State, and the market is all too eager to fade them again. Meanwhile, Missouri State enters on a two-game winning streak, which will only add to their appeal. But this is where we have to step back and recognize the trap.

Evansville is not as bad as their record suggests, especially at home. While they’re winless on the road, they’re a respectable .500 team in Evansville and have shown fight in their home games, even leading at halftime in two of their three home losses. Contrast that with Missouri State, who hasn’t won a true road game this season, and the dynamic shifts. The Bears may have dominated this series, but they’re walking into a situation where Evansville is primed to punch back.

Let’s also take a closer look at the line. Evansville was priced identically as a 4.5-point underdog in their last game at Ball State, a team ranked 93 spots lower than Missouri State in KenPom’s ratings. Even with home court factored in, this line doesn’t add up. If Missouri State is truly the superior team, why aren’t they laying more points? The number is screaming for Missouri State money, and we’re not taking the bait.

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