Pinnacle -1½ -109 BET365  1½ -110 Sportsinteraction 1½ -110  888Sport 1½ -110

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Memphis -1½ over Ole Miss

FedEx Forum – Memphis, TN

2:00 PM ET. When an unranked team is favored over a ranked opponent, alarm bells should ring. It’s often a loud and clear signal that the ranking is more illusion than substance and that the unranked side may be far better than its record suggests. Such is the case here.

On the surface, #16 Ole Miss sports an impressive 11-1 record and a shiny ranking, but dig deeper, and the flaws become evident. The Rebels’ strength of schedule ranks an abysmal 332nd nationally. By contrast, Memphis is 9-3 against the 4th toughest schedule in the country. That disparity in competition level explains the difference in records, but as we often preach, win-loss records are surface-level metrics that rarely tell the whole story.

Despite every red flag waving high, Ole Miss is a public darling on Saturday’s slate. The market seems enamored with the Rebels and their gaudy record, but we’re not biting. The Rebels’ schedule has been a cakewalk, with recent wins over the likes of Queen’s University (262nd in KenPom), Southern (5-7), and Lindenwood (ranked 339th in KenPom). Meanwhile, Memphis has secured road wins at Clemson, UConn, and Michigan State in the past month. Yet, the market is overly fixated on one blemish—a double-digit home loss to #19 Mississippi State last week.

Let us be clear: Memphis’ short price here isn’t a gift; it’s a reflection of respect from oddsmakers. Had the Tigers played Ole Miss’ schedule, they’d likely be undefeated and ranked in the Top 10. Memphis is the more battle-tested, experienced team, and this line invites us to fade the public’s overreaction.

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