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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cal State Bakersfield +10½ over North Dakota St

Scheels Center – Fargo, ND

8:00 PM ET. The market has a short memory, and this matchup serves as a perfect example. Back in November, Cal State Bakersfield defeated North Dakota State 86-81 as a two-point home choice, yet the narrative now is entirely different. Why? Because the Bison have been an ATM for bettors over the past month, and nobody wants to step in front of a runaway train.

North Dakota State comes into this one riding an eight-game winning streak against the spread (ATS) while winning seven straight outright. During that stretch, the Bison have annihilated opponents, including a 36-point shellacking of Western Michigan just eight days ago. NDSU has also been lighting it up offensively, eclipsing 90 points in back-to-back games. Their bread and butter? The three-ball. The Bison rank 6th in Division I in three-point shooting percentage (41.5%) and chuck up nearly 30 attempts per game, good for top-25 nationally. Teams like this become market darlings because they’re flashy, exciting, and they win big.

Meanwhile, Bakersfield comes in as the “ugly duckling.” The Roadrunners are a middling 6-7 overall, have failed to cover in four of their last five, and just blew a 12-point halftime lead to Portland State on Saturday in a 1-point loss as a four-point favorite. Add it all up, and this sets up beautifully for the market to fade Bakersfield while piling on NDSU. After all, who wouldn’t want to back a team on fire like the Bison against a squad that just melted down at home?

That’s precisely why we’re stepping in with the Roadrunners. The market’s overreaction to recent form gives us an inflated number, and Bakersfield is more than capable of keeping this one close.

The Roadrunners bring a top-10 rebounding presence to the table and hold opponents to just 30.6% shooting from three-point range (86th in the nation). If there’s a formula to disrupt a three-point-heavy offense like NDSU’s, it’s strong perimeter defense paired with dominance on the glass. The Bison are living off their shooting, but teams that rely heavily on the three can look unstoppable when the shots are falling and downright dreadful when they’re not.

NDSU’s impressive numbers and recent dominance create the illusion of invincibility, but we’ve seen this script before. If the Bison go cold from deep, they’ll have trouble covering this number, especially against a Bakersfield team that has already proven it can hang with them. Even if the Roadrunners don’t win outright, they’re more than live to stay within this inflated price.

If NDSU comes out and shoots the lights out again, we’ll tip our cap. But we’ll gladly take the enhanced value on the Roadrunners and trust that their defensive strengths and rebounding edge will be enough to make this a sweat for the Bison backers.

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