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Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Montana State +122 ML over UC Riverside

SRC Arena – Riverside, CA

10:00 PM ET. UC Riverside looks shiny on paper. Winners of seven of their last nine, a three-game streak capped by a 23-point demolition of a D-II team, and revenge motivation against a Montana State squad that edged them by a point last year. Add to that the Highlanders’ 4-0 ATS record against the Bobcats in this series, and the market is ready to anoint them the clear choice. We’re here to tell you — don’t fall for it.

Riverside’s recent run is inflated by weak competition. Their D-II beatdown was meaningless, and their early-season 0-2 stumble hints at vulnerabilities lurking beneath the surface. Meanwhile, Montana State’s 5-6 record hides a deeper truth: this team is battle-tested. Three of their losses came by a combined seven points on the road, including a narrow defeat to Northwestern, a Big Ten program that has beaten ranked Illinois. The Bobcats don’t just compete — they thrive in adversity, as evidenced by their 11-point road win over Omaha when favored by just four.

Metrics favor Montana State. Ranked higher in both NET and KenPom, the Bobcats are better in field goal efficiency, three-point defense (13th nationally), assists, blocks, and steals. Defensively, Montana State allows just 69.1 points per game (88th nationally), while Riverside sits at a porous 233rd, giving up 71.5. This is a mismatch disguised as a coin flip.

The revenge narrative for Riverside is just that — a narrative. Bettors love these emotional angles, but they rarely hold water. Montana State has the tools, metrics, and composure to prevail, and they’re positioned as the wrong side of a near pick’em price. We’re pulling the trigger on the Bobcats to take this outright.

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