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Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Mississippi Valley State +36½ over North Texas

UNT Coliseum – Denton, TX

8:00 PM ET. Let’s not kid ourselves — backing Mississippi Valley State is about as attractive as a root canal. The Delta Devils are winless on the road, sporting a 2-11 record with victories coming against D-II schools most people couldn’t locate on a map. Their rankings in KenPom and NET are literally at rock bottom. But here’s the thing: grotesque teams like MVSU often present opportunities because their public perception is so awful, it inflates the market. Tonight’s matchup is a prime example.

North Texas is being asked to lay 36 points — an absolutely colossal number, one they’re not used to handling. UNT’s only prior foray into heavy favoritism this season saw them laying 13.5 to Evansville, a 3-7 squad, which makes this spread nearly three times steeper. Think about that. Against Liberty (11-1), the Devils took back 35 points, yet tonight the Mean Green are laying even more despite being a 6-3 team that hasn’t faced a ranked opponent. Value, thy name is Mississippi Valley State.

The Delta Devils’ wretched reputation comes with context. They’ve faced the toughest schedule in the country, featuring a who’s-who of powerhouse programs: #3 Iowa State (9-1), Missouri (10-1), Texas (9-2), and Kansas State (6-4), to name a few. These are teams North Texas couldn’t hold a candle to. Meanwhile, UNT’s biggest margin of victory against a D-I opponent this season is 20 points. The Mean Green are being overpriced here based on MVSU’s surface-level metrics, while ignoring the grueling path that’s shaped their season.

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